A little dishonest not to mention that they fell by like 30% from 2017 to 2022. This feels more like a return to a pre-pandemic level.
Also odd that they ignore that the presentation they reference claims we should have fewer this year than 2019. (slide 40)
I’ve been screaming it practically at people that were seeing a ton of things returning to pre pandemic levels this year as a ton of government money/programs ran out. There’s going to be an adjustment for people where they freak out and think everything is a sign of a recession, but I’m just not seeing any of those same signs. That’s not to say things aren’t going great, but it’s definitely not like a lot of these articles where they try to sound an alarm that doesn’t need to be sounded.
Commentators in the industry have been prognosticating about a subprime auto loan bubble burst for years and it keeps not happening, for whatever reason. Frankly I’m a bit surprised it hasn’t happened yet, but without some sort of engineered soft landing it feels like it has to be coming eventually. Car prices keep going up, loan terms keep getting longer, and the cost of borrowing is punishing right now. Negative equity in new loans keeps rising too. It’s only going to take a small systemic blip in people’s ability to pay to create a sudden spike in repossessions.
