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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 23rd, 2023

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  • There’s a shitload of selection bias at play there. When we do prepare for something and actually successfully prevent it, your brain won’t remember it for you, unless you try really hard.

    So, it’s almost impossible to just figure out how well we prepare, using some kind of sniff test. Our human brains just royally suck at that specific kind of analysis.

    By way of example, Biden’s recent investment into port security. If a problem never occurs now, are you going to give him a point for that, or just never really consider it again?

    This is partly why the scientific method needs to be so strict, slow and rigorous to get anywhere.





  • I didn’t intend any offense, but validating individual personal experiences is not what policy is for. It’s a statistical thing. Those fields of study are vastly more valuable than any anecdotes, which can be subject to a lot of different potential problems.

    Particularly on the internet, which is absolutely full of people saying shit that is not actually true, and pretending to be things they are not.

    It’s not personal, it’s very coldly impersonal. On purpose. I would discount an individual experience regardless of who the person was, or what they said.








  • Yeah, when you look at how the build-out of radar capabilities and fighter aircraft pitched in a couple years later you start to see things in a different light.

    I think he was playing both sides somewhat, he seemed to genuinely want peace-in-our-time and naively think it was possible, based on his public messaging anyway. But he also allowed a very expensive militarization just in case. A prudent politician, not putting all his eggs in any one basket.

    Then when the war began and it became clear he could not keep his country unified after bungling Norway, he very courageously took full responsibility for his soft direction and resigned, taking that whole shame onto his own shoulders, and personally paved the way for a more hard-nosed guy and brilliant public speaker to come in clean and run the actual war. And, most importantly, it all worked. The Battle of Britain was a victory. Britain withstood, protected by the navy and airforce that he funded, where so many others were defeated.

    He’s a very conflicted figure, but I think he does deserve credit where it’s due.