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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • The way the DA’s quotes all seem to be impliedly questioning the credibility of this woman because the cops say she told them something different two years ago is wild

    Like, we won’t know for sure what actually happened here without a way deeper investigation, but if this DA didn’t even consider the possibility that the cops intimidated this woman into changing her statement back then and the truth is only coming out now that she’s got her own representation his voters need to remove him from office ASAP, because fuck only knows what his cops are doing if he’s that credulous with them











  • Interesting theory, but imo

    a) Never ever ever bring up Biden, his administration was a failure that was rejected by voters and there’s absolutely no need to waste political capital trying to rehabilitate his legacy. If someone else brings him up the answer should always be “Biden failed because [whatever], what my administration will do differently is [whatever].”

    b) I think most voters are going to have a really hard time believing that anything bad could ever happen to them personally the same way they think about car crashes and mass shootings, so I think the “ICE is Trump’s Gestapo and a threat to you” argument will fall flat (even though in reality it’s an excellent point). Like, even with Renee Good they will say “Well, that was terrible, but she was a protestor and I’m not so I’m fine.”

    c) Closet bigots still think bigotry is bad, they just also believe they’re not bigots, so appealing to bigotry too directly isn’t going to win them over and it will make progressive voters stay home. I think emphasizing the “law abiding” nature of most migrants will reach that exact type of voter tho (like, law abiding is just assumed when we’re talking about white citizens and it’s not with brown migrants, which is a fucked up double standard, but arguing about that is almost as big of a waste of time as arguing with people about Joe Biden in 2026).


  • Another page talking about this same poll (arc) had this interesting part,

    On the issues, Democrats hold an advantage over Republicans on which party would better handle the economy (42% Democratic Party to 34% Republican Party), foreign policy (42% Democratic Party to 36% Republican Party), and gas prices (40% Democratic Party to 27% Republican Party). The gap narrows considerably on immigration. Here, voters divide with 41% reporting the Democratic Party would do a better job and 38% saying the Republican Party would handle the issue better. Impressions of the Democratic Party’s handling of immigration have improved, though, since 2024. At that time, 30% of registered voters thought the Democrats would do a better job on immigration, and 42% said the Republicans would better address the issue.

    Independents’ views widen the Democratic advantage on three of the four issues. On gas prices, independents favor Democrats by 26 percentage points (41% to 15% Republican Party). On foreign policy, the Democrats (47%) hold a 22-percentage point advantage over the Republicans (25%), and on the economy, Independents give a 19-percentage point advantage to the Democrat Party (41% to 22% Republican Party). On immigration, independents still favor Democrats but by a narrower 14 percentage points (41% Democratic Party to 27% Republican Party). Of note, 18% of independents think that neither party would do a good job handling immigration.

    My theory is that these independents see immigration as a choice between Republicans who are honest about horrible policies and Dems who are dishonest about ineffective policies. Dems saying that they want to militarize our border, telling migrants not to come here, or other right wing talking points doesn’t do them any favors because it just makes voters think that even the Dems think Republicans’ bigotry is justified. Instead, flip the conversation and talk about how our immigration system makes it impossible for people who are trying to do things the right way and frame yourselves as champions of law abiding blue collar types on every side of the border.









  • The founders didn’t really give the Presidency that many powers, things just kinda devolved that way over the years because Congress didn’t want to make tough votes, e.g. the Vietnam war wasn’t ever technically a war because Congress didn’t want to own it by declaring one, so they just told Eisenhower/Kennedy/LBJ/Nixon to figure it out for them with a bunch of vaguely worded resolutions and lots of military funding in budgets.

    Also, it is the founders’ fault that they gave us a system with an undemocratic Senate where Wyoming gets as many votes as California that distorts everything in our politics because they wanted to protect the little state government fiefdoms they’d made for themselves.