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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • Wouldn’t take the military, he can call on federal marshals, the FBI, the NSA, the CIA, and probably even some of the local police would be willing to become his dogs. He could also in theory deploy one states national guard into a different state although that’s a little shakier legal ground. That’s assuming of course that the local officials would refuse to appear in court or a congressional summons voluntarily. There’s also other ways of exerting pressure like refusing to issue federal funds (although that’s far less effective against Democrat states since they contribute more federal funds than they receive, particularly California).





  • That’s great in theory but just as unrealistic in practice for California as it always has been for Texas. The single biggest stumbling block for any state to leave the union for any reason is the military. Most of the other problems can be resolved within the borders of the state, but the disposition of existing and theoretical new military hardware, personnel, and bases will always be a sticking point even assuming the federal government and the other states are willing to let them leave.

    Any attempt to leave the US that has any hope of succeeding would be a very long and protracted process that would make Brexit look breakneck in comparison. We’re talking at least a couple decades at a minimum.

    It’s either that or another civil war and that has so many variables I’m not sure anyone has any hope of predicting how that would turn out.










  • A politician has exactly one job, and that’s to convince people to vote for them. In a perfect world they would do that by having a solid policy and a strong track record. In this less perfect world it mostly comes down to their campaign promises. When a politician loses an election, assuming no election fraud (and setting aside the real issues of gerrymandering and the problems with first past the post) that is entirely the fault of that politician. It is not the voters fault. It’s the politicians job to convince the voters nobody else’s.





  • What the fuck do they mean privatization, it’s already fucking private! Did we suddenly get a socialized healthcare system when I wasn’t looking?

    Could have saved a lot of time by just saying Trump plans to make one of the worlds worst healthcare systems even worse in whatever way he can. We’re well on track for a healthcare system collapse in the US if Trump actually implements the things he’s said he will. It will make a matched set with the economic collapse he’s also working on.


  • People don’t care if it takes 1 term or 10 terms, what they want to hear is that Democrats are working on both short and long term goals to address the problems they care about. They want to hear meaningful changes. What they got is a message that Democrats are hard at work rearranging the deck chairs while the Titanic is sinking. There are many systemic issues in the US right now. The Democrats just needed to fucking pick one, start working on fixing it, and explain to people how they’re working on fixing it.

    How about working to get Citizens United overturned? How about actually working on proper socialized healthcare instead of the bandaid that the insurance marketplace was? Working on getting rid of first past the post? Working on creating a federal right to abortion? Coming up with some way to keep the GOP from packing the supreme court with corrupt “judges” who treat the constitution like toilet paper? How about fixing our IP laws to be something sane like cutting copyright to 15 years? Just taxes in general, the 1% tax bracket should be paying 90% in taxes. Make capital gains taxes higher than income tax. These are just the things I can think of off the top of my head, I’m sure there’s dozens more people could come up with.


  • No, the party doesn’t get to decide that, the voters do. If the DNC could decide that yes it would be a winning strategy, but they can’t.

    There are essentially three groups of voters roughly representing a third of the US each.

    The first group are the conservatives, they primarily want to prevent things from changing further from their rose tinted vision of the past, and if possible undo “recent” changes. They often have an overly simplistic idealized vision of how things were when they were children they want to recreate. This is of course utterly impossible. They are the core of the Republican party and reliably vote Republican because they believe the lies they’ve been fed their entire life that the Republicans are the only ones holding back Democrats from making the US a communist dictatorship where everyone is required to have a sex change and all the white people will be rounded up and put in concentration camps so illegal immigrants can take their homes and jobs. They are so utterly terrified of this entirely fictional bogeyman that their entire voting decision boils down to “always pick the one with an R next to the name”.

    The second group are the progressives, they primarily want to improve social and economic issues. These are the core Democrat supporters, but Democrats have always been the least bad option. They know that our first past the post election system means only the two largest parties are truly viable and right now that means the Republicans and Democrats. These are the main group preventing Democrats from winning because as Democrats have consistently shifted right on social and economic policies they’ve lost more and more of the increasingly disenfranchised voters who look at their options and see literally nobody who represents them.

    The third group is basically everybody else. Some of these people are hard core 3rd party supporters like fans of the green party, some are just the entirely apolitical who don’t pay any attention at all to politics or current events outside of the occasional flashy headline or overheard water cooler conversation. Yet others are those that don’t really fall into either the conservative or progressive camps, neither harboring a rose tinted view of the past, nor particularly caring about social or economic issues. Sometimes these people are very dedicated single issue voters. It’s this third group that Trump was able to tap into with his lies and who Harris completely failed to motivate.

    Any successful campaign must attract a sizable group from among any combination of these three. Obama for instance won all the progressives and a good chunk of that 3rd group. Trump likewise got all the conservatives and a good chunk of that 3rd group. Harris not only failed to get many of the progressives, but also most of that 3rd group as well.

    Republicans have both an advantage and disadvantage in this situation. While each of those groups represents about one third of the nation, conservatives are the smallest of the three by a significant margin. This is offset though by them being very reliable voters (fear is an incredible motivator even when it’s entirely imaginary), and progressives being very fickle in their support. This means without taking that 3rd group into account out of the gate Republicans tend to start with a solid lead. Democrats meanwhile need to rally progressives and a chunk of that 3rd group in order to win.