It’s not about winning Iowa so much as it is a reflection of national climate. Though Selzer is historically far more accurate than Emerson.

Here’s a comment about why Selzer is a standout in the context of Trump’s previous elections.

Here’s my comment on the same thread which includes [Nate Silver’s writeup] (https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-state) on why other pollsters are less reliable right now due to herding. Emerson is the second worst herder on his list.

Now I agree, it seems rather unlikely she wins Iowa. Selzer’s numbers leave room for a narrow Harris loss. I just wanted to provide context on why this poll is vastly more significant than Emerson’s. If she hasn’t made a massive mistake, the national climate is much more Harris friendly than it feels. I won’t let myself be optimistic over this, but it makes it a lot harder to be pessimistic.

used to say that a very unusual event is not likely to happen again to the same person or in the same place

As commentary on the idiom and not the topic of the thread, surely it’s an ineffective idiom if the meaning is vastly different from the saying? I feel like everyone had a “it does strike twice, though” moment in their life after hearing this exact phrase

Pretty sure that doesn’t get you out of the registration, only actually serving. I think Trump was registered and said the bone spur thing later

Imo the main difference is that Target has tap to pay/QR code payment while Walmart pushes Walmart+’s payment methods. I tried W+ since it was free with one of my credit cards, and it’s still quite inconvenient.

But otherwise, I largely agree. Targets feel a little nicer and they look better, but that hardly matters. If there were more Walmarts around me I’d go there instead sometimes. As much as I dislike the Waltons, Walmart sometimes has better selections than Target. Truthfully I’m morally for shoplifting from Walmart but don’t like committing crimes myself since there is risk involved.

Tangentially, some Target brand stuff really sucks. Anything with moving parts seems quite prone to breaking quickly. The food items I’ve tried are extremely low quality. One such item is their shredded mozzarella.

Truly, it is the worst mozzarella I can think of. Tasted off and the texture was lightly rubbery. It also would not melt. Before they started botting the reviews (I assume; it is difficult to imagine real humans enjoying it), it was rated poorly on their own site. And still the reviews mention how it simply does not melt and is quite terrible.

That fateful bag of horror made me start paying closer attention to the quality of Target brand items, and I have found it lacking. The foods I tried were bad— there was also a memorable bag of cookies, dusty in texture and taste. Also their foaming soap dispensers break consistently within months, though they’re otherwise quite nice.

So as they pivot into store brand, I’d urge you exercise caution trying them. Buy a brand you like as well so you’re not left without, should it prove low quality. Walmart brand stuff is way better but there are far more Targets where I live.

Yeah pretty much. I thought I would pirate the stuff I did lose (Invincible S2 because it now has ads) but turns out I’m just not that interested. TV is great when the barrier to entry is on the floor as it was with streaming services but any minor obstacle is apparently enough. I take it a bit further by preferring to watch things on only high quality screens with high quality audio, nixing my phone as an option.

It’s not for lack of time on my end either, I have plenty of free time. But there’s only so many hours in the day and usually I’d prefer to be doing something else.

With streaming services clamping down on password sharing, I’ve found that I actually don’t even care enough about the shows to pirate them. There’s great discussion on streaming services succeeding because of ease, and the resulting rise of piracy rates, but I wonder how many others like me just stopped watching TV.

It’s not even about the money for me— one of my credit cards has a monthly credit for streaming services. I chose to lose Disney+ instead of giving them Amex’s money at no cost to myself, cause fuck them.

A ton of people work poor jobs or unfortunate hours and have their health suffer for it. No need to rub it in, he clearly doesn’t think it will be healthy.