True story: half the country doesn’t even know she’s in yet.
Had to tell 3 peeps at dinner yesterday what’s up.
I’m not alone.I get how there are people who don’t follow politics, but man… how do you avoid news like this?
I mean, technically, she’s not in until the convention… but you would think it would be common knowledge unless you’re a recluse or a child who doesn’t know most people by name.
Someone more famous than I (Meryl Streep?) once suggested that upon graduation, one should be mandated to drive a taxi for a year, just to see what it’s “really like” out there.
You’ll have to take my word for it, she’s so right.People still talk about litter boxes in schools for the furries - with a phone attached to their palms 24/7 that’ll PROVE to them in seconds that it never happened…and, yet…
I just worked customer service for a decade. After awile you just take it in stride when an adult is functionally illiterate. Leaving aside the people who think Democrat and Republican have to do with the dictionary definitions of Democracy and Republic and nothing else.
I think we are all in literal Hell. That’s the only explanation that makes sense that other people are so clueless. We are all dead and in Hell; they are actors put here to torment us.
It’s both the best and worst time ever to be alive for someone with a halfway functional brain. Science is making all sorts of incredible advances and we’re learning different things about the universe. Then you turn around and there’s large swaths of the population that are apparently purposefully ignorant about the most basic stuff that is integral to the running of the country, and we’re dependent on these same people to go vote to help save democracy.
Except we’re putting all our best minds on hair loss medicine and dick pills. And the number 1 show is “Ow my balls”. I want off this timeline. Brought to you by Carls, Jr.
I get how there are people who don’t follow politics, but man… how do you avoid news like this?
In my experience, with so much option offered by the Internet, an individual could easily curate the type of information they’re consuming and exclude others.
I’m aware of targeted ads and algorithm having some influence, but overall the internet still offers better freedom of choice than TV, radio and newspaper would have offered. But the problem with this is people curating only what they want to see and making their own personal informational bubble. Seeing what people only want to see, especially ones that comfort them. That’s why too many people are unaware on certain things.
That requires effort, the TV tells people what to think and that is easy.
That does kind of explain a lot.
I know we’re all in our own occasionally overlapping echo chambers, but the betting odds and prediction markets still tend to favor Trump, some of the larger ones pretty heavily. It’s very disconnected from the narrative I’ve been seeing about Kamala here and elsewhere, I hope that narrative is right, but still doesn’t line up.
Why do I keep seeing people putting stock in “betting markets”? … Somehow professional gamblers became respected replacements for polls some and I do not get it
I think the justification is that people will be more honest/rational when betting their own money.
It’s probably less irrational than stock markets, since there’s a very clear time horizon people are betting on, and data like polls can be pretty good. But since they’re looking at essentially the same data as pundits, it’s unsurprising they tend to do about as well.
It’s real easy to make polls go whichever way you like if you try and it may be in someones best interest to make sure only the ‘correct’ polls are widely known. We’re spoiled in that we’ve been able to expect the organizations involved to be trustworthy and not do that, but I think a lot of us feel that that’s been less and less true.
For the betting markets, their success relies almost solely on them predicting odds correctly and consistently. Our respect here is for the people who dedicate their lives to making sure the gamblers lose. Could obviously still be manipulated, but in this case doing so is at least contrary to the purpose of the organization instead of in the previous case potentially actually supporting it…
Not going to lie though, is a weird shift, I get it.
I never said that polls were accurate. And I get the reasoning, sort of. I just don’t understand why anyone would think that this actually adds any legitimacy or accuracy:
Our respect here is for the people who dedicate their lives to making sure the gamblers lose.
If it were so good of an indicator, then why wouldn’t anyone betting on sports check what the “market” says, bet and win big all the time? Most people lose these bets, otherwise it wouldn’t make sense to bet on things to begin with.
I feel like you’re confusing the people who make the bets with the people who make the odds, those are interconnected obviously and react to each other, but it’s two separate parties.
2 weeks, and she’s erased polling deficits!
#maga is drooling in fear through their “tooths”, like Pavlov’s dog, bc they’re hearing the Ding! Ding! Ding! from the electorate.
How? I’ll bet half the world knows, and probably most of them don’t want to
A whole lot of people are actively avoiding political news.
Some because they hate the vitrol, and a whole lot who are voting for Trump and don’t want to face what that means.
We’re painfully aware. Please get everyone who’s eligible to go vote, we can’t, but are still affected.
How anyone in the US doesn’t know is beyond me. Hell, you’d have to not go outside, and not go online. Which you’d imagine to be fairly rare.
Ask them!
You’re surrounded!Depends on which side of the asylum wall is inside and which is outside
So they didn’t know “she’s in” but did they know Biden dropped out?
“Who?”
– them
They don’t know who Biden is?
sorry,
“/s”
… You started off with a supposed true story that you want people to believe, but somewhere it turned to sarcasm. I’m not sure what to believe anymore.
The true story is that people, except the reader, you, and I, are fucking ignorant, illiterate, and stupid.
That applies to my first statement, my reply to you, and the subsequent replies.
Michigan fucking loves her. Damn.
also, Trump did nothing for them
Also, Trump’s a rapist, convicted felon, and just plain weird.
I’m glad you went easy on the lying treasonous cowardly pedophile traitor, Fatty McFelon.
Warms me heart.
Yes, yes we do. We love women leaders, we keep voting for them.
I’m not sure the country is ready for a gay VP, but my god Pete would destroy JD in the debate.
Let’s just get the orange turd defeated, we’re already pushing boundaries enough here. Pick a safe VP that calms the boomers and carry on later.
I think Trump proved that literally anyone can be president.
This is awesome, the momentum looks like it’s going to keep up! The +11 point lead in MI is nothing to doubt, let’s go President Harris!
I hope her campaign keeps reminding voters everywhere of project 2025, and exactly how it’s going to negatively impact their lives.
How is drumpf even a candidate at this point?
Welcome back!
“Funny” story, there’s been some flux in a gravitational waves or some yada yada, and next thing you know, surprise, we’ve been teleported to an alternative universe where politics SUCKS ASS.
That’s how.
Overall the polls have been encouraging for her, but that MI one look really wrong. 538 has her about down a point on average.
538 shows the same result, Kamala +11, for the specific Morning Consult poll cited in the chart.
But you are correct that this poll is an outlier compared to other polls, and we probably need more data and for the race to settle a bit before we have a sense of the actual margin.
I’m hesitant to put too much stock in any numbers a single week into her candidacy. It also bears repeating that no poll matters unless people vote.
I didn’t realize Nate Silver left 538 (he’s over at Silver Bulletin now.) Not sure how credible they are anymore, after Disney/ABC gutted the team, and he left with the
magic saucealgorithms. They were the one place I semi-trusted for polling, most accurate I’ve come across (since 2012 or so).Yeah, I’m not sure how reliable their final predicitons will be, but they’re definitely still useful for compiling polls, and their pollster ratings are useful since they only have to look at how close polls came to being correct after the actual vote. That’s primarily what I use them for.
Oh cool, I was worried I’d have to go vote.
Vote anyway just to be safe
