There’s some things to be hopeful about. Trump cannot run again, so the republican party has no choice but to be thinking about what’s next. Additionally, aside from the slim majority in the house, mid-term elections are only two years away. That means the Republicans need to thread a needle here by sufficiently pacifying the MAGA diehards and Trump, but not so much that they have complete reign over the direction of the economy.
Many in the republican party have become full-on cultists. But many of them also just play-act because it’s where the power is right now. And many of them aren’t in the cult, but they simply ignore it because it benefits the party. If the Magats are given no leash, their policies will almost inevitably turn the electorate against them. So many of Trump’s proposals are good “tough guy” vengeance talking points that speak to aggrieved white people, but the election was closer than they are pretending.
If Trump goes on a full vengeance tour and his Project 2025 crew enacts their policies, the consequences of all that rhetoric will be devastating to poor white people. I know we like to think it happened during his first term and they didn’t care, but it’s not true. He was a fairly ineffective president. But now that he’s got people around him that want to actually act not talk, there’s a huge downside risk that they’ll start losing power during the mid-term elections. If that happens, the last two years for Trump will be miserable as everyone jumps ship from the senile guy in his mid-80s that can’t run again and is bleeding out the republican party of support.
Political pragmatics will force the republican party to turn on him. He’s simply unable to wield much influence after his last term. He will be too old and have no political future. And that will be recognized and cause some political realignment far before his presidency comes to an end.
Why can’t Trump run for a Third Term? Because the Constitution says so? Psh! When have Republicans cared about the Constitution (except when Defending people who Murder a Bunch of Children in a School!)?
It’s theoretically possible but extremely unlikely for a number of reasons. There’s a difference between bending constitutional intent by flouting democratic norms on the one hand, and outright ignoring what most people consider to be an explicit and core constitutional principle on the other. And, again, I’m not someone that believes Trump is ultimately heading for a lich-king transformation, so basic biology makes it even more unlikely.
There’s some things to be hopeful about. Trump cannot run again, so the republican party has no choice but to be thinking about what’s next. Additionally, aside from the slim majority in the house, mid-term elections are only two years away. That means the Republicans need to thread a needle here by sufficiently pacifying the MAGA diehards and Trump, but not so much that they have complete reign over the direction of the economy.
Many in the republican party have become full-on cultists. But many of them also just play-act because it’s where the power is right now. And many of them aren’t in the cult, but they simply ignore it because it benefits the party. If the Magats are given no leash, their policies will almost inevitably turn the electorate against them. So many of Trump’s proposals are good “tough guy” vengeance talking points that speak to aggrieved white people, but the election was closer than they are pretending.
If Trump goes on a full vengeance tour and his Project 2025 crew enacts their policies, the consequences of all that rhetoric will be devastating to poor white people. I know we like to think it happened during his first term and they didn’t care, but it’s not true. He was a fairly ineffective president. But now that he’s got people around him that want to actually act not talk, there’s a huge downside risk that they’ll start losing power during the mid-term elections. If that happens, the last two years for Trump will be miserable as everyone jumps ship from the senile guy in his mid-80s that can’t run again and is bleeding out the republican party of support.
Political pragmatics will force the republican party to turn on him. He’s simply unable to wield much influence after his last term. He will be too old and have no political future. And that will be recognized and cause some political realignment far before his presidency comes to an end.
Why can’t Trump run for a Third Term? Because the Constitution says so? Psh! When have Republicans cared about the Constitution (except when Defending people who Murder a Bunch of Children in a School!)?
It’s theoretically possible but extremely unlikely for a number of reasons. There’s a difference between bending constitutional intent by flouting democratic norms on the one hand, and outright ignoring what most people consider to be an explicit and core constitutional principle on the other. And, again, I’m not someone that believes Trump is ultimately heading for a lich-king transformation, so basic biology makes it even more unlikely.