Netanyahu is under pressure to keep his coalition government intact. Two far-right partners have threatened to bolt in protest at any deal they deem to spare Hamas. A centrist partner, ex-general Benny Gantz, wants the deal considered. Hamas has provisionally welcomed the Biden initiative.
I said this in a thread in World News- what will be interesting domestically now is whether or not this gives Biden a boost in the polls. It may be too late.
Anyway, I hope this ceasefire sticks.
I hope it sticks also. Regardless of success, it puts Biden in direct oversight of negotiations and circumvents the State Department. His restored sanctions on Israel’s expansion leave Netanyahu with no requests other than hostage return and ceasing inbound attacks. If they fail the ceasefire over desire for retribution or expansion, Biden has a first hand account of justification for amendment of support without challenge from Congress.
Axios seems to have some more details in this article:
https://www.axios.com/2024/06/01/israel-gaza-hostage-ceasefire-deal-confirms-biden
Basically the deal is a temporary cease fire that would then allow negotiations for a full ceasefire after that. It’s a gamble, but the US seems to think that if they can get the conflict to a very low grade state, they can convince the Israeli’s not to go back in. In a vacuum this isn’t a terrible strategy, but there is broad public support for the war in Israel and the ruling coalition knows their days are numbered if there is no war. Even a temporary ceasefire is better than nothing though.
It’s not something the Palestinian public can accept. Give over ALL your leverage in exchange for a temporary deal that has no incentive to prevent a resumption of war, no quantifiable guarantees of aid or allowing people to return to their homes, or advance to Two State solution? To say nothing of the West Bank pogroms and Al Aqsa incursions that triggered the Oct 7 reprisal attack in the first place.
There’s a reason Hamas originally rejected the Israeli offer; it was insultingly bad and only benefited Israel. That’s why the original offer argued over “ceasefire” versus “sustainable calm,” whatever that means.
Keep in mind Israel has not formally accepted it yet nor stopped the bombings and raids.
Right now this is all background stuff being reported on. Netanyahu is being pressured in both directions; Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have said they will leave his coalition if he accepts a ceasefire, which means elections and prosecution. Turning down the offer will make Israel look even worse to the international public and cause him deep problems with US.
Opposition leader Lapid has indicated that he intends to support Netenyahu if his coalition falls apart due to the deal. Of course, such transactional support offers tend to be fical, and Netanyahu needs perpetual support in order to avoid jail on corruption charges.
Unfourtuantly, such a realignment (or, at least the threat of one) to a more centrist coalition is the only plausible path to a deal.
And how is this framework any different from the other dozen deals Israel has committed to with Biden but not fulfilled?
Because Hamas actually agreed to it as well.
Hamas has agreed to deals before as well. I swear they release a similar headline every two weeks, then Israel goes back to murder everything mode.
Hamas proposed deals that Israel has not agreed to, and vice versa. The previous agreements have been deemed inequitable by the opposition.
Biden proposed the ceasefire two days ago. Netanyahu agreed, then Hamas agreed, then Netanyahu backpedaled. Now he’s back on board. It appears to be happening this time.
The current ceasefire proposal is literally the same one that Hamas has proposed a month ago lol
You shouldn’t be downvoted. It is confusing.
Fucking terrorists
