Polls are garbage. Vote like they don’t exist.
Polls are garbage.
The mainstream professional polls have been reliable for some time. They typically get within 2-3pt margin of error when taken a few days before the election, and they serve as a useful bellweather to track public sentiment. In this case, it appears jettisoning Biden is bringing voters back to the Dem fold. That’s what Dems were banking on, and I’d consider it a good thing given how much I don’t want Trump to be President.
Vote like they don’t exist.
People who obsessively follow polling are the ones most likely to vote.
Stepping aside may honestly be the single greatest show of leadership Biden has done in his lifetime. If the polls are swinging, it’s as much due to him making such a historical and respectable move as it is people surprised and refreshed by Kamala Harris.
Polls were historically accurate in 2022 and generally do a good job of measuring the temperature. Still, vote like they don’t exist.
I know the top comments in these subs is always something along the lines of “fuck the polls! Go vote!” I agree but damn it is nice to get some positive news now and then!
Right? Enjoy something positive for a few seconds!
Definitely don’t look at polls from the swing states then.
Let it be a runaway snowball of a lead
As with all the discussions on national polls, it’s necessary to point out that national polls have no meaning. We don’t have national elections.
Blue states are gonna blue state and red states are gonna red state, so the President will be decided by a handfull of states that don’t reliably vote one way or another, and frankly, we just don’t have enough good data on a Harris nomination to say one way or another.
Looking at the notable states I’ve looked at before, this data is from before Biden dropped out.
Arizona - Trump +6 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada - Trump +10 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico - No data for Harris.
Georgia - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/North Carolina - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin - Tied.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Minnesota - No data for Harris.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/Harris also puts Virginia in play now as well, in what was assumed to be a blue state, now Trump +4.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
So this is her starting point. She has 105 days to turn this around. The Democratic convention in August is key.
As of right now though? Here’s the map:
So ESPN favors trump is what you are saying. That site is owned by them. Always look at the bias.
They’re aggregating polls with a public methodology. Just because an organization exists doesn’t mean it is pushing a bias in everything it does. If you’re going to claim a bias point it out, say what they are doing to bias the results, you can’t infer it from results.
You can’t get anything unbiased if the site is owned by a huge corporation. You can get that fantasy out of your head. That site is nothing but polls by disney.
But it’s polls by everyone.
And yes you CAN get unbiased information from a huge corporation. Do you have a weather app? Book publishers are corporations, are Earth Science textbooks biased for one political candidate?
I’m not saying they CANT be biased, I’m saying you do need literally any evidence before just asserting that they are.
On the surface but I hardly am going to trust something that is run by disney.
That’s like saying “Rotten Tomatoes” is biased. They’re an aggregate.
They are biased not because the aggregate but because they limit reviews. Who uses them? People who can form their own opinions of what they like.
Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if all or almost all major news outlets have some bias towards Trump from up top since they all are the basically the same people.
Entertainment news is pretty much all we have left. All of them are geared toward getting views and ratings. I have zero trust these days. I’m hardly ever surprised when some new corruption comes out and how quickly it disappears behind a cacophony of crap that doesn’t matter to me in the least. When people constantly stand on poll data that in my 53 years I’ve never been asked to participate in any poll. I’m pretty sure I am in no way unique so I figure polls are targeted for a result and I’m not a part of the process. I’m just supposed to be a consumer.
That’s good news but still too close. We all need to continue informing the public that Donald is a dementia-ridden geriatric physically and mentally unfit for the office.
Her polls before Biden did the right thing were lower. She has upward momentum. Biden had downward momentum.
Project 2025 mentions Trump’s name 300 times. Officials from his administration were involved in writing it. It’s a plan to replace public servants with “Trump loyalist” - which Trump calls “destroying the deep state” but is actually know as “Unitary Executive Theory”, aka a dictatorship.
In 2018, The Heritage Foundation said on their website, that two-thirds of the previous “Mandate for Leadership” they wrote for Trump had been passed into law. They’re a big part of how the GOP sets policy when in office, dating back to the Reagan era.
Polls mean nothing, the trends on polls aren’t guaranteed if people get complacent and don’t turn out. Voter apathy is the worst thing that can happen to Dems in this election
Well I hope they learned from 2016. I think they did…
That’s within the margin of error. That’s not leading.
1.) POLLS ARE GARBAGE.
2.) Corporate news cannot run a horse race without polls
3.) See #1
Let’s get this number to double dights!
Oh cool a national poll, I’m sure this’ll be super relevant to a race decided on the state level.
Biden’s our best bet, they said.
Everyone else polls worse, they said.
They were and remain full of shit.
Most of us have told you tons of fucking times that we didn’t care who they ran, we were voting AGAINST Trump, not FOR Biden.
Why do always make shit up? Are you THAT desperate to be right about anything?
Well, maybe your aren’t right about something, but you finally got your way- we’re not voting for Biden now.
Only, we’re not not voting. So…. I guess you don’t really get your way. Do you?
Most of us have told you tons of fucking times that we didn’t care who they ran, we were voting AGAINST Trump, not FOR Biden.
And now that you have the opportunity to vote for someone who can actually beat Trump, you’re angry.
Why do always make shit up?
If you haven’t noticed people on lemmy who were insisting that it had to be Biden because no one else could exceed his polling, you haven’t been on lemmy for a while.
Only, we’re not not voting. So…. I guess you don’t really get your way. Do you?
Check my comment history. I’m overjoyed that we have a better candidate now. Seems like the party is with me.
Of course, you’re not. Try to avoid the urge to write in Bidenyahu.
This is why no one takes you seriously here.
The party listened to people like me who wanted Biden to step down. They ignored the calls to maintain an untenable status quo from people who swore there would be chaos immediately upon Biden quitting the race.
The results speak for themselves. There’s genuine excitement behind Harris that wasn’t there for Biden. There’s hope again.
ROFL! You think YOU did that? Hilarious!
I said people like me. In case you missed it, people who wanted Biden to step down were abundant.
We were also right, as events have indicated.
You think people like you did that?
This. You can’t forget what their plan was. They changed course somewhat, but Kamala is the never-Trump candidate. I expect her to do better than Biden, but they are still full of shit.
