And somehow people keep coming back for more

An old man was shouting at the clouds.

Sounds like what he actually said is that the market would crash if he got elected again…? Presumably he meant the opposite.

The man has never made much sense but this is absolute drivel.

Whoa I didn’t know he knew the word “substantial”. Add that to the list of 3-syllable words trump can use. Is this real?

Tbh it’s long due for a crash anyway. It’s propped up on an unsustainable model as is, and good returns are because a lot of companies are slashing workforce for the sake of bottom line. It’s bound to happen regardless.

Wow took you long enough

He’s never had to campaign from a position of weakness before. In 2016 he was a troll candidate and never expected to win. In 2020 he was the President. For most of this year he was the clear frontrunner. His appeal depended on him being the “strong man” and now that he’s weak he’s got nothing.

Don’t forget to vote!

It’s a safe gamble to make, because predicting the wrong market turns get forgotten while predicting the right turns get you heralded a genius. Everyone remembers Michael Lewis for “The Big Short”. Nobody remembers him for his blinkered interview slobbering all over SBF right before FTX went bust.

And with Clinton. He has done the “we’ll have nuclear war if [he/she] wins” three times now.

He’s an idiot but the line going up before a crash is what happens, right?

Insofar as the line generally goes up and occasionally crashes, yes.

It’s almost like there’s no connection between administrations and the stock market

That’s not true. Republican Presidencies very regularly implement large tax cuts at the beginning of their administrations. This tends to create a flow of new cash for investment, which results in speculative bubbles, which tend to resolve as market crashes 4-8 years later.

Reagan, Bush Jr, and Trump all kicked off this cycle. Even Obama is kinda-sorta guilty of it, having slashed taxes as part of the '09 rescue package and inflating a small bubble that popped in 2014. Trump’s collapse came on a bit earlier than expected, thanks to COVID, but he’d paved the way to the Crypto Crash (FTX devastated large parts of the off-book financial economy and kicked off an inflationary cycle as big finance guys scrambled to reposition) from day one of his administration.

I’d argue that the current AI bubble is in no small part a function of Biden’s over-investment in Big Tech at the expense of manufacturing and transit. But we’re still waiting to see how that pans out.

investors know they’ll make shittons of money either way

Plenty of investors ride the boom/bust cycle to their own demise. We just don’t talk about them the way we talk about the Gates and Buffets and Bezoi, who diversify thoroughly.

But what presidents direct the national budget to do absolutely matters in the downstream industry. Whether MilTech or Telecom or Construction or Agriculture or Semiconductors or Intercontinental Logistics outpaces the field depends heavily on what direction the President moves on domestic subsidies, government contracts, and international trade deals.

If Bush Sr and Clinton had told their administrations to invest big in Linux, I question whether Microsoft would be a household name. I can tell you for a fact that Exxon adopting Oracle Database Suite was what transformed Larry Ellison from small time software salesman to billionaire. That came on the heels of the Reagan DOJ fucking over Inslaw, Inc (which was on the forefront of relational database tech) and trafficking the PROMIS database engine to partisan insiders like Ellison (former CIA contractor) and Perot (oil industry flak).

We’re seeing the modern incarnation of this with guys like Thiel and Musk, who are cleaning up on government contracts in information security, automotive subsidies, and aerospace technology largely by buying out the competition with cheap loans sourced through Federal Reserve friendly private banks.

Presidents (and their downstream cronies) have enormous influence on which businesses and industries succeed and which ones fail.